Saturday, August 3, 2013

Bernanke and the singing syndrome cock Chantecler



The biggest economic problem at the moment is less than the recession that the misunderstanding between the political rhetoric and the real economy. To understand nature, we will refer to a play: Chantecler , written by Jean Rostand and performed in Paris in 1908.
The best lessons in economics does not necessarily in economics textbooks: Chantecler is the story of a rooster backyard. Every morning upon awakening, the rooster crows, as the sun rises. He is convinced that it is he who makes the sun rise. To a fatal morning when waking up too late, he discovers that the sun is up without his having sung Chantecler suicide.
Well, most of the politicians in the West and more technocrats of international institutions is to take Chantecler: they imagine that their palaver and determine a forecast growth rate. People poisoned by so many speeches, end up believing and expecting that local and international politicians it produces the expected growth. Unfortunately, the growth does not obey the government orders! Economic history teaches us that governments and international institutions have a high capacity to destroy the economy but very little to build. Destruction? It's easy: making of monetary inflation, widening fiscal deficits, fund unnecessary infrastructure, harm merchants, national and international trade, announce absurd forecasts gel the labor market, capital expenditure plan to fashion such are poisoned arrows that appear in the political quiver.
To complete our demonstration, imagine for a moment that some international institutions Economic Development disappear overnight, the IMF, for example. The global economy would it be worse? IMF he never made the slightest service? If it disappeared, in real life, it would happen unless the need for the ten thousand IMF officials to find meaningful employment. If we got rid of the crowing of the heads of the IMF (Christine Lagarde manages very well to imitate the rooster), who think make the sun rise , popular knowledge of the real economy progressed.
What is the IMF applies to some extent, driven by central banks monetary policies. Without any doubt, the Chantecler Award goes to Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve: multiplying cryptic statements as an ancient omen, suggesting that it could increase or decrease of one hundredth point interest rates, it suggests that the U.S. economy is dependent on its scientific calculations. The experience of recent years shows that it is not. If he really belonged to central bankers or finance ministers encourage growth according to their wishes and declamations, why the hell do they deprive us? The truth is that they do not have the influence they attribute except when they exercise in a negative way, generating uncertainty and instability.
Who makes the sun rise? Entrepreneurs, of course, and they alone create real value. Provided that governments adhere strictly to their business - essential - which is to establish a set of rules, legal, stable and predictable. Without the rule of law, no growth. In a rule of law, Milton Friedman once observed, growth was almost natural because entrepreneurs can not help but create: it is stronger than them. Governments are also required (contrary to what some liberal fundamentalists say too) to manage the painful social consequences of change, what Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. Good economic governance, in short, should consider how not to prevent contractors to undertake and how to acceptable Creative Destruction for society? Everything else is either harmful or falls syndrome Chantecler.

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